*完成訂單後正常情形下約兩周可抵台。 *本賣場提供之資訊僅供參考,以到貨標的為正確資訊。 印行年月:202111*若逾兩年請先於私訊洽詢存貨情況,謝謝。 台灣(台北市)在地出版社,每筆交易均開具統一發票,祝您中獎最高1000萬元。 書名:旅遊需求預測-當代視角 ISBN:9787521829976 出版社:經濟科學 著編譯者:吳曦 頁數:353 所在地:中國大陸 *此為代購商品 書號:1554059 可大量預訂,請先連絡。 內容簡介 本書旨在探討氣候變數對旅遊需求的影響以及引入氣候變數是否可以提高旅遊需求預測精度。文章系統評述了包括組合預測方法、計量經濟模型、單變數時間序列模型、人工智慧技術在內的各種旅遊需求預測方法及模型,綜述發現,已有研究忽視氣候變數在旅遊需求分析及預測中的作用。在此基礎上,作者提出新的旅遊需求預測方法:即引入旅遊氣候指數的組合預測策略。實證研究發現,旅遊氣候指數對旅遊需求存在顯著的積極影響,新的預測策略能夠提高預測穩定性及精度。作者簡介 吳曦,經濟學博士,研究方向為旅遊需求預測與旅遊可持續發展。現任中原工學院經濟管理學院副教授,中原工學院系統與工業工程技術研究中心研究員。2007年6月畢業於北京師範大學,獲經濟學碩士學位,同年7月進入中原工學院經濟管理學院任教。2015年10月獲得Erasmus Mundus全額博士獎學金,赴伯恩茅斯大學(Bournemouth University)攻讀博士學位。讀博期間,先後受聘于伯恩茅斯大學擔任兼職講師及兼職研究員,2017年獲得第六屆國際旅遊經濟學協會 (International Association for Tourism Economics,IATE)國際雙年會博士獎學金及最佳論文獎。2020年1月博士畢業,獲經濟學博士學位。目錄 Chapter 1 Introduction1 1 Research Background and Motivation 1 2 Research Aim and Objectives 1 3 Overview of International Demand for UK Tourism 1 4 Structure of This Book Chapter 2 Literature Review 2 1 Introduction 2 2 Non-causal Time Series Techniques 2 2 1 Overview 2 2 2 The Na?ve Model 2 2 3 The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model 2 2 4 The Exponential Smoothing Model 2 2 5 The State Space ETS Model 2 2 6 The Structural Time Series Model 2 2 7 The Singular Spectrum Analysis 2 3 Causal Econometric Models 2 3 1 Overview 2 3 2 The Single - Equation Approach 2 3 3 The System - of - Equations Approach 2 3 4 Studies Based on Panel Data 2 3 5 Climate and Tourism Demand 2 4 The Combination Forecasting Approach 2 4 1 Why to Combine 2 4 2 Weighting Schemes 2 4 3 Applications in the Tourism Demand Literature 2 5 Data 2 5 1 Data Type 2 5 2 Data Frequency 2 6 Summary Chapter 3 Research Method 3 1 Introduction 3 2 Research Plan 3 3 Variables and Data 3 3 1 The Dependent Variable 3 3 2 Explanatory Variables 3 3 3 Data Sources 3 3 4 Data Sample 3 4 The Bounds Test Cointegration Approach 3 5 Diagnostic Tests 3 5 1 The Jarque – Bera Normality Test 3 5 2 The Breusch – Godfrey Lagrange Multiplier Test 3 5 3 Testing for Heteroscedasticity 3 5 4 The Ramsey Regression Equation Specification Error Test 3 6 Forecasting Methods 3 6 1 Individual Forecasting Models 3 6 2 The Combination Forecasting Approach 3 7 Forecasting Procedures and Accuracy Measures 3 7 1 The Recursive Individual Forecasting Procedure 3 7 2 The Recursive Weighting Procedure 3 7 3 Forecasting Accuracy Measures 3 8 Programming for Combination Forecasting Chapter 4 Results and Discussion: Impact Analysis 4 1 Introduction 4 2 Results of Unit Root Tests 4 3 Results of Bounds Test 4 4 Estimation Results and the Impact of Influencing Factors 4 4 1 Income 4 4 2 Own Price 4 4 3 Substitute Price 4 4 4 One-off Events 4 4 5 The Climate Factor 4 4 6 The Error Correction Term 4 4 7 Diagnostic Tests 4 5 Summary Chapter 5 Results and Discussion: Forecasts Comparison 5 1 Introduction 5 2 Forecasting Performance of Individual Models 5 2 1 Comparison for Different Origins 5 2 2 Comparison for Different Forecasting Horizons 5 2 3 General Comparison among Various Individual Models 5 2 4 Whether Including the Climate Factor Can Improve the Forecasting Ability of Econometric Models 5 3 Forecasting Performance of Combination Methods 5 3 1 Combining All Models 5 3 2 Combining Traditional Econometric and Time Series Models 5 3 3 Combining Climate Econometric and Time Series Models 5 3 4 Comparison among Three Combination Groups 5 4 Which Models to Combine 5 5 How Many Models to Combine 5 6 Conclusion Chapter 6 Conclusion 6 1 Introduction 6 2 Summary of the Findings 6 3 Limitations of the Current Research 6 4 Recommendations for Future Research Bibliography 詳細資料或其他書籍請至台灣高等教育出版社查詢,查後請於PChome商店街私訊告知ISBN或書號,我們即儘速上架。 |